Madison's Building Boom Skipped the Condo. Here's What That Means for Buyers
In September 2026, Dane County had 391 condos for sale. That is more than any September in the South Central Wisconsin MLS table going back to 2016. Only 102 condos sold that month, the fewest of any September in the same table. The median condo sale price was $340,500, the highest September figure on record.
Normally a market with a record number of listings and very few sales is a market where prices slip. This one went the other way. To see why, start with a number from City Hall. Madison is finishing new homes at one of its fastest rates in a decade, and it is adding almost no new condos.
The South Central Wisconsin MLS splits Dane County sales into condos and everything else. That split shows two markets moving at different speeds.
| Dane County, September | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Condo active listings | 268 | 391 | up about 46% |
| Condo sales | 104 | 102 | down 2 |
| Condo median sale price | $300,000 | $340,500 | up about 13.5% |
| Non-condo active listings | 869 | 989 | up about 14% |
| Non-condo sales | 394 | 422 | up 28 |
| Non-condo median sale price | $481,000 | $508,950 | up about 5.8% |
Non-condo homes behaved the way a healthy market is supposed to. More listings, more sales and a moderate price gain all moved together. Condos did not. The number of listings jumped, sales stayed flat at a low level, and the median rose more than twice as fast as it did for houses.
The blended county median, the figure most people quote, was $474,950 in September 2026, up from $445,000 a year earlier. That single figure hides the whole split.
The Wisconsin Policy Forum's September 2026 analysis of municipal assessment records found that Madison added an average of about 16 condo units a year from 2021 through 2025. From 2004 through 2008, the average was about 547 a year. The Forum's count includes both new construction and conversions from other uses.
The Forum's figures cover the City of Madison, and the MLS counts cover all of Dane County. Still, with Madison producing new condos at close to a standstill, the 391 condos for sale across the county this September were most likely made up largely of existing units. A resale belongs to an owner who bought at some earlier price, comes with an association history, and can choose to wait.
That is the mechanism behind the puzzle. When a new building opens, the developer has dozens of units to sell and carrying costs that reward moving fast. A resale owner has one unit and no deadline. A shelf stocked by hundreds of individual owners can grow longer without anyone being under pressure to cut prices, and that matches how September looked.
The median deserves caution. It reflects whichever 102 condos happened to close that month. If more of those sales were larger or newer units, the median rises even if no individual condo became more valuable.
The shortage of new condos is not a shortage of construction. The City of Madison reported on October 7, 2026 that 2,424 net new homes were completed through September 30. That already tops the 2,328 completed in all of 2025. The city counts every dwelling unit, rented or owned, and 768 of this year's completions are subsidized affordable homes.
Most of that construction is in large buildings. From 2015 through 2024, about three-quarters of new Madison homes were in buildings with 25 or more units, and only 15% were in one-unit buildings. In its 2025 Housing Snapshot, the city says data for 2025 and for projects under construction show a continued shift toward larger buildings.
The Cap Times has reported why those buildings tend to become rentals and not condos. In its coverage of the city's condo gap, the paper quoted city planning director Matt Wachter saying new condos built in recent years number "in the low hundreds." Mason Cavell of the Madison Area Community Land Trust told the paper that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now require more presold units, earlier association formation and higher replacement reserves. Jessica Piatt of Capitol Bank described the developer's math: with a rental, "they can take that profit over, you know, small amounts over a large number of years."
The rental side is now feeling that wave. On August 27, 2026, CoStar reported that Madison's apartment vacancy rate had risen over the past year even as renters leased more units, because new buildings added apartments faster than the market could fill them. Madison is building a great deal of housing, and almost all of it is for renters. Buyers who want an owned unit near downtown or campus are choosing from the same existing stock that has been there for years.
September was not a one-off. Condo listings in Dane County ran ahead of the prior year in every month this summer. Prices did not move in a straight line.
The supply trend is steady and clear. In June and July, the condo median was below the prior year. Only in August and September did it jump. Two strong months on a small number of sales do not yet make a trend in condo values, while four straight months of more listings does point to a real increase in supply.
Some data caveats apply. These figures are for all of Dane County, not the City of Madison alone. The most recent Madison-only MLS figure is for full-year 2025, with 2,637 sales at a $424,900 median. Different reports also count differently. For August 2026, the Wisconsin Realtors Association put the Dane County median at $479,900, and the MLS table shows $475,000.
A rising median and a growing shelf send different signals to a buyer. The median tells you where recent sales closed. The shelf tells you how much choice you have and how long the condo you like may have been waiting. For condos this fall, the shelf is the better guide to your bargaining position.
Questions worth asking before you write on a Dane County condo:
Lender standards and association documents differ from building to building. This post is general market information and not legal or financial advice, so please confirm your own situation with your lender and an attorney.
The pipeline of new owner-occupied homes is short and mostly unfinished. Downtown, the city-owned Brayton Lot, also called Block 113, drew two remaining proposals. According to the Cap Times, Brink Development proposed 281 condos and Tareen Development Partners proposed 30 market-rate condos. The city's project page still lists the final report, Finance Committee review and Common Council action as upcoming.
At the state level, Assembly Bill 455 and its companion Senate Bill 481 would have created a grant program to reimburse condominium conversions. Both failed in the Senate on March 23, 2026. The Wisconsin Policy Forum notes that the state last changed its construction-defect lawsuit window in 2018, cutting it from ten years to seven, and suggests policymakers could revisit that law.
Smaller owner-occupied projects are moving forward at the edges of the city:
None of these projects adds downtown condos in the near term. For the coming season, Dane County condo buyers will be choosing from existing units.
Are Dane County condo prices rising? The median condo sale price was $340,500 in September 2026 and $341,000 in August, both well above a year earlier. In June and July 2026 it was below the prior year. The recent gain rests on about a hundred sales a month, so the mix of units that sold has a large effect on the figure.
Why are there so many condos for sale if so few are being built? Madison added about 16 condo units a year from 2021 through 2025, according to the Wisconsin Policy Forum. New construction that slow cannot account for a jump of more than a hundred listings, so most of the increase most likely comes from existing owners putting their units on the market.
Does the apartment boom affect condo buyers? Indirectly. New supply is going into rentals, and CoStar reported rising apartment vacancy this summer. It does nothing to add to the stock of owned units, which is why the condo market and the rental market are moving in different directions.
If you're weighing a Dane County condo this fall, Susan Sutton Homes can pull the listing history, recent sales in the association and the building's documents for the specific unit you're considering, so your offer reflects that building's own numbers and not the county median. Request a Complimentary Home Valuation & Concierge Plan to get started.
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